Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe576…6950 other 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,984 (-2%) realized −$1,987 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$959per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$20
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$63
other 40% −$128
sports 11% −$1,696
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$107
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -3.2% -12.5% 6% 0% -11.8%
all 132 +1.4% -8.3% 22% 12% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 12% -11.0%
10% -17.1% 11% -19.5%
15% -25.1% 11% -27.3%
20% -32.4% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,360) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$720
Realized−$1,987
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage163d
Avg bet$959
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $716 $720 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $1,755 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,447 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $3,285 −$5 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,993 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,399 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,172 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,403 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $355 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $525 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,023 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,885 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,130 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,014 −$1 -0%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,550 −$3 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,365 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,493 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,453 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,853 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,360 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,468 −$2 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $2,205 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $3,663 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $305 6m
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $459 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $460 3h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $267 43h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $267 44h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $442 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $442 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $221 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $221 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $676 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $677 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $716 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,388 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,390 12d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 12d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,134 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,397 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,399 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,080 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,082 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,149 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,150 15d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,291 18d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,293 18d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,260 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $719.51 · official $719.51 (match) · 488 history records