Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E5 0xe576…1c23 crypto 1035 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$374 (-7%) realized −$374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%441W / 623L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$847
7 days−$847
14 days−$847
30 days−$847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$413
other 4% −$40
sports 2% −$16
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 -70.0% -72.9% 14% 11% -42.0%
≤30d 332 -70.0% -72.9% 14% 11% -42.0%
≤90d 336 -70.4% -73.2% 14% 11% -42.2%
all 1064 -22.2% -29.6% 41% 32% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 32% -19.0%
10% -36.4% 28% -26.8%
15% -42.5% 24% -33.9%
20% -48.2% 20% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses441 / 623
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1064 / 1035
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1064 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 78¢ 76¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 22¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 314 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-02-13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 1 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-02-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 8PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Fnatic (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$1 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$10 -43%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$10 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$11 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$7 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$6 -26%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $0 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.91 · official $10.58 (match) · 3500 history records