Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe56e…0bb4 sports 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+1%) realized +$93 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%145W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$173
14 days−$142
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$153
other 8% +$27
politics 2% +$10
tech 2% −$163
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +113.8% +93.4% 73% 73% +16.7%
≤30d 26 +47.1% +33.1% 58% 58% -2.6%
≤90d 83 +24.7% +12.8% 52% 51% -1.0%
all 304 +0.0% -9.5% 48% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 47% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 47% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 47% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 45% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses145 / 159
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions7
Markets (closed)304 / 311
History coverage194d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) New Zealand 76¢ 76¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the NYSE choose Ethereum? Yes 87¢ 32¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-64%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$56 +550%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $212 +$72 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$17 +165%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 −$62 -61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $71 +$73 +102%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 06 $224 −$224 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $51 +$51 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $102 −$4 -4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $101 +$84 +83%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $51 +$45 +89%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $101 +$87 +86%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $9 +$15 +158%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$16 +77%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $51 −$47 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 15 $26 +$16 +61%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $51 +$24 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $20 +$31 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 12 $25 +$8 +33%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $31 +$31 +102%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $21 +$104 +510%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 08 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 76¢ $81 53m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 53m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 54m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $20 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 5h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $212 31h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 22¢ $40 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $20 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $81 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 57¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $51 7d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $101 9d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $51 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 36¢ $98 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 54¢ $101 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $20 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.59 · official $197.59 (match) · 656 history records