Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe56e…219d world 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
politics 23% $0
other 14% $0
sports 12% −$9
economics 5% $0
finance 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 9% -8.9%
≤30d 29 +8.4% -1.9% 38% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 64 +3.9% -6.0% 34% 3% -9.3%
all 65 +2.3% -7.4% 34% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -16.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage522d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $62 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $61 +$3 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $89 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $90 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $3 −$1 -25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $0 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $7 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $25 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $25 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 36¢ $15 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $9 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $31 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $0.00 · 268 history records