trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 80% | 40% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 83% | 33% | -7.8% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -14.6% | -22.7% | 62% | 38% | -9.7% |
| all | 24 | -14.6% | -22.7% | 62% | 38% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.7% | 38% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -30.1% | 25% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -36.9% | 17% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -43.1% | 8% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $200 | $199 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 28¢ | 32¢ | $150 | $172 | +$22 (+15%) |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 85¢ | $20 | $45 | +$25 (+124%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 21 | $51 | −$41 | -79% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 21 | $50 | +$3 | +7% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 21 | $50 | +$25 | +49% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $50 | +$9 | +18% |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Jun 21 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | May 31 | $100 | +$8 | +8% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 05 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? | May 05 | $30 | +$17 | +55% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 28 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 28 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 28 | $100 | +$43 | +43% |
| Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Apr 27 | $50 | −$45 | -90% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 27 | $100 | +$28 | +28% |
| Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Apr 27 | $50 | +$12 | +24% |
| Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Apr 24 | $30 | −$2 | -7% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 21 | $200 | +$22 | +11% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $100 | +$53 | +53% |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? (April 5) | Apr 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Trump say "Hot as a pistol" this week? (April 5) | Apr 02 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 02 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| Will Trump say "Banana Republic" in March? | Apr 01 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Trump say "UFC Fight" in March? | Apr 01 | $20 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30? | Mar 31 | $50 | +$8 | +16% |