Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe56b…2c03 sports 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,773 (-5%) realized −$3,773 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%129W / 208L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1,249est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$1,058
14 days−$4,529
30 days−$12,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3,133
other 3% −$1,524
finance 3% −$29
world 3% −$671
culture 1% +$464
politics 0% −$19
tech 0% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -20.3% -27.9% 24% 24% -34.5%
≤30d 95 -34.1% -40.4% 25% 24% -47.8%
≤90d 321 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 38% -14.9%
all 337 -5.1% -14.2% 38% 37% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 37% -15.0%
10% -22.4% 37% -23.1%
15% -29.9% 36% -30.6%
20% -36.8% 34% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$202 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,773
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses129 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,249
Open positions0
Markets (closed)337 / 337
History coverage107d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 337 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Jun 28 $347 −$13 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $321 −$210 -65%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 25 $257 −$257 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Set Handicap: Yaneva (-1.5) vs Miyazaki (+1.5) Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $639 −$385 -60%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 24 $227 −$227 -100%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $169 −$114 -67%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 24 $214 −$214 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $348 −$313 -90%
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $154 −$154 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina Jun 23 $223 +$177 +79%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $155 +$245 +158%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $98 +$466 +474%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $447 +$289 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $296 −$296 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $639 −$639 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 20 $935 −$935 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $984 −$984 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $630 −$630 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $153 +$88 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $509 +$50 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $124 +$19 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $336 +$664 +197%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $170 −$169 -99%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 14 $173 −$173 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $274 −$274 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $249 −$249 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $357 −$357 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $475 −$328 -69%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $486 −$486 -100%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 13 $244 +$256 +105%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $294 +$706 +241%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $496 +$604 +122%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $540 +$235 +43%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -24%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? Jun 07 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $107 −$107 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $262 −$262 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $378 −$378 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $348 −$348 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $560 −$560 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $103 −$7 -7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $412 +$338 +82%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $814 +$307 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $333 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $200 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $114 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 54¢ $109 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $98 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 37¢ $151 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 34¢ $1 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 34¢ $1 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 34¢ $51 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 34¢ $3 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 34¢ $3 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 34¢ $1 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 33¢ $4 4d
Set Handicap: Yaneva (-1.5) vs Miyazaki (+1.5) BUY Miyazaki 55¢ $6 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Yuriko Miyazaki 30¢ $2 4d
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY Power Rangers 27¢ $176 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Power Rangers 8¢ $36 4d
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY Power Rangers 24¢ $25 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Power Rangers 7¢ $7 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina BUY Esther Adeshina 55¢ $223 4d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 46¢ $257 4d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $227 5d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $347 5d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 21¢ $97 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $47 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $43 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $3 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $1 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $307 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1287 history records