Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe56b…ea26 world 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$248 (+1%) realized +$191 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate80%47W / 12L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,059
7 days+$1,534
14 days+$1,661
30 days+$1,735
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$1,442
crypto 6% +$134
politics 5% +$174
other 2% −$398
economics 2% +$21
tech 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +13.5% +2.7% 90% 25% -1.8%
≤30d 43 +10.3% -0.2% 86% 28% -1.9%
≤90d 57 +5.5% -4.5% 79% 25% -5.0%
all 59 +6.1% -4.0% 80% 27% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 27% -4.7%
10% -13.2% 19% -13.9%
15% -21.6% 8% -22.2%
20% -29.3% 5% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$61 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$1,166
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses47 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage152d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 79¢ 83¢ $1,109 $1,166 +$57 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $255 +$15 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $7,101 +$558 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $990 +$41 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $4,738 +$400 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $142 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $576 −$2 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $864 +$45 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $636 +$265 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $128 +$48 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +106%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $493 +$54 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $130 +$11 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $344 +$23 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $216 −$7 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $349 +$19 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $84 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $267 +$25 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $269 +$32 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $196 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $54 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $277 +$6 +2%
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $27 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 07 $119 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $144 +$9 +6%
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $51 +$17 +33%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $409 −$14 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $360 +$17 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $89 +$7 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $246 +$39 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $335 +$38 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $107 +$2 +2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $152 +$10 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $190 +$50 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $16 −$3 -19%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 29 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 28 $20 +$5 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $19 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $0 $0 -30%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $439 −$235 -54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 16 $239 −$3 -1%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Apr 16 $437 −$409 -94%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? Apr 16 $117 +$64 +55%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Apr 16 $54 −$53 -99%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? Apr 16 $231 +$10 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $599 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 45¢ $270 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 57¢ $3,323 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 42¢ $255 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 35¢ $2,041 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 69¢ $4,335 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,029 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $1,031 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,038 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 98¢ $1,038 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $3,600 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 98¢ $3,677 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $363 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $58 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 99¢ $423 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $317 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 90¢ $4,501 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 93¢ $14 20h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 93¢ $67 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $81 20h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 92¢ $126 20h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 93¢ $29 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $144 20h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $14 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $109 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $49 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $32 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $387 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $65 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166.15 · official $1,166.15 (match) · 378 history records