Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe569…e759 sports 665 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,304 (+7%) realized +$2,238 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%294W / 367L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$322est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$352
14 days+$2,775
30 days+$2,566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1,244
other 33% +$999
crypto 1% +$117
world 0% +$35
politics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 45% -6.7%
≤30d 527 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 46% -1.7%
≤90d 661 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 44% -3.3%
all 661 -4.8% -13.9% 44% 44% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 44% -3.3%
10% -22.1% 43% -12.6%
15% -29.6% 39% -21.0%
20% -36.5% 33% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$37 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$2,238
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses294 / 367
Est. fees paid−$322
Open positions4
Markets (closed)661 / 665
History coverage52d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 58¢ $50 $89 +$39 (+77%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 92¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+52%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 46¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 37¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 341 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$212 +414%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $37 +$219 +596%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $180 −$178 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $115 +$64 +56%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$77 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$30 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$63 +124%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 +$77 +152%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$115 +226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $47 +$30 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $86 +$31 +36%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $56 +$32 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 +$38 +206%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$66 -65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 +$102 +101%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$40 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $404 −$400 -99%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 2h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 14h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 14h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 14h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $51 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $18 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 28h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 28h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $180 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $14 29h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $102 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 35h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 35h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 43h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $102 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 43h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.45 · official $224.74 · 1133 history records