Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe567…99d6 other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 21% −$17
politics 8% −$3
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$4
world 6% −$4
crypto 6% −$4
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage127d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $193 +$3 +2%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $352 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $295 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $485 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $359 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $338 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $560 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $476 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $296 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $194 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $351 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $394 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $217 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $791 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 5h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 10h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 12h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 16h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 18h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 19h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 21h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 22h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 23h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 25h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 26h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 28h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 32h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 34h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 40h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 42h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 43h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $55 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1294 history records