Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe565…e644 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$293 (+10%) realized +$293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days+$84
14 days+$253
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$265
crypto 31% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -23.5% -30.7% 30% 30% +1.4%
≤30d 31 -24.9% -32.0% 35% 35% +0.1%
≤90d 31 -24.9% -32.0% 35% 35% +0.1%
all 31 -24.9% -32.0% 35% 35% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 35% +0.1%
10% -38.5% 29% -9.5%
15% -44.5% 26% -18.2%
20% -49.9% 16% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$35 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage10d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $106 +$475 +449%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$9 +166%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 +$16 +16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 −$19 -18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 −$27 -26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 +$83 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $337 +$147 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $335 +$76 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $328 +$70 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $581 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $119 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $84 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $76 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.06 · official $500.06 (match) · 62 history records