Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe565…391e politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$70 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$24
politics 27% −$18
sports 15% −$16
crypto 10% −$12
economics 5% −$4
culture 4% −$10
world 4% −$2
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 65 -1.0% -10.4% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 120 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 142 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 130
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage108d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $125 −$2 -2%
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $49 −$4 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $269 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $62 −$2 -4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $99 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $46 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $55 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $167 −$3 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $56 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $66 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 17h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $50 18h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $51 25h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $54 26h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $54 30h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $8 31h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $8 38h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $59 38h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $60 42h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $62 43h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $62 2d
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 91¢ $46 2d
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $48 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.76 · official $64.76 (match) · 571 history records