Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe565…9479
crypto · 90 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$33 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$28 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$179
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses64 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage123d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 4 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$28
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 84¢ $42 $37 −$5 (-12%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $58 +$20 +35%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 01 $38 +$5 +13%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? May 31 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $39 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 28 $29 $0 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $59 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 22 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $51 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $43 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 4? May 04 $94 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 04 $70 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 01 $58 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 30 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 29 $34 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 22? Apr 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 21? Apr 21 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $51 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 13 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 12? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7? Apr 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Apr 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 11 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Apr 04 $19 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March? Apr 01 $57 +$3 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $42 +$4 +8%
Wizards vs. Lakers Mar 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 29? Mar 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Capitals vs. Utah Mar 27 $65 −$5 -8%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-03-22? Mar 27 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 20 Mar 27 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 27 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 24 $13 −$7 -53%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $78 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $39 $0 +0%
UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears Mar 19 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11PM ET Mar 19 $50 $0 +1%
Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Mar 19 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 25% −$27
other 22% +$10
sports 15% +$7
finance 12% −$25
tech 10% −$2
weather 5% −$10
world 5% −$3
politics 3% +$17
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No $5 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No $5 2h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 6d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 65¢ $78 6d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 11d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $43 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $27 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $1 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $2 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $1 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $1 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $8 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $1 11d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 40¢ $7 11d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $45 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 100¢ $30 14d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $44 15d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 15d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 18d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 18d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $52 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 98¢ $13 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 98¢ $16 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 22d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +209.1% +179.6% 100% 100% +179.6%
≤30d 11 +21.9% +10.3% 91% 18% -2.9%
≤90d 63 -5.1% -14.1% 78% 6% -10.6%
all 86 -4.5% -13.6% 74% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 8% -10.3%
10% -21.9% 5% -18.9%
15% -29.4% 3% -26.7%
20% -36.3% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.51 · official $178.48 (match) · 277 history records