Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe564…1e80 sports 256 markets active 2d ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$270 (+3%) realized +$270 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%123W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$147
14 days+$279
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$134
other 2% +$27
economics 1% −$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +9.9% -0.6% 59% 59% -0.5%
≤30d 77 +5.7% -4.4% 52% 51% -3.7%
≤90d 256 +0.2% -9.4% 48% 46% -7.7%
all 256 +0.2% -9.4% 48% 46% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 46% -7.7%
10% -18.0% 45% -16.5%
15% -26.0% 43% -24.6%
20% -33.2% 40% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses123 / 133
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage59d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 24 $40 +$31 +78%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $54 −$53 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $40 +$14 +34%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $44 +$37 +84%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton Jun 23 $25 +$18 +71%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +72%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Schnaitter/Wallner vs Pavlasek/Rikl Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $41 +$17 +42%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $45 +$34 +76%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $32 −$1 -4%
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich Jun 22 $115 −$113 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $60 +$67 +112%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 22 $126 +$79 +63%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $71 +$55 +78%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $64 +$78 +121%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $8 +$3 +40%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $52 −$52 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 22 $60 −$6 -9%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $35 −$23 -65%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $48 +$19 +39%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $58 +$48 +84%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $91 −$89 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $98 +$92 +94%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $62 −$61 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $45 +$36 +79%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren Jun 19 $41 +$40 +97%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 17 $32 −$18 -57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $30 −$4 -12%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $27 +$28 +101%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $54 +$55 +102%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $27 +$33 +119%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $28 +$25 +89%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $27 −$27 -98%
Mets de Guaynabo vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce Jun 16 $28 +$26 +91%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $28 +$28 +101%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $32 +$24 +73%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $74 −$13 -18%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$20 +65%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $41 −$39 -96%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 14 $41 −$19 -48%
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 14 $41 +$40 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $35 38h
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R SELL 9z Team 94¢ $71 38h
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY 9z Team 52¢ $40 40h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 53¢ $54 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 73¢ $54 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $40 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume SELL Himeno Sakatsume 94¢ $80 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Himeno Sakatsume 50¢ $44 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton SELL Julia Riera 97¢ $43 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton BUY Julia Riera 56¢ $25 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL Yes $5 2d
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Schnaitter/Wallner vs Pavlasek/Rikl BUY Schnaitter/Wallner 49¢ $35 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $55 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes $3 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 15¢ $3 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 52¢ $41 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $78 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $45 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Venus Williams 55¢ $26 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Venus Williams 47¢ $5 2d
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich BUY Miguel Tobon 49¢ $115 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 54¢ $32 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing SELL Max Basing 100¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva SELL Matej Dodig 77¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva SELL Matej Dodig 78¢ $204 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Matej Dodig 47¢ $126 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing SELL Max Basing 99¢ $126 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing BUY Max Basing 46¢ $60 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 99¢ $126 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 55¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 479 history records