Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E5 0xe564…4bcd crypto 1062 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$504 (-3%) realized −$502 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%517W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$239est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$442
crypto 23% −$152
other 4% +$124
weather 3% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.0% -53.8% 29% 29% -27.1%
≤30d 136 -24.5% -31.7% 39% 33% -25.7%
≤90d 1060 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 43% -12.2%
all 1060 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 43% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 43% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 36% -20.6%
15% -29.4% 29% -28.3%
20% -36.3% 24% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$502
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses517 / 543
Est. fees paid−$239
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1060 / 1062
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1060 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 24¢ 46¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+90%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Sashi Esport 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? Jun 25 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $29 −$14 -47%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $1 +$6 +807%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Ilkley: Alina Korneeva vs Celine Naef Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +134%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$6 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 +$10 +254%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -66%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Lyon: Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +15%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 24¢ $4 2m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Sashi Esport 65¢ $30 17m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 24¢ $5 27m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 36¢ $2 29m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 14¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 27¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 56¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 78¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 79¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 15d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 55¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $6.83 (match) · 3500 history records