Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe562…4fa9 other 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,722 (-2%) realized −$1,085 · open −$637
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%310W / 404L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1,408
other 21% −$767
culture 16% +$1,790
politics 12% +$1,406
sports 6% −$419
tech 3% −$92
crypto 3% +$182
finance 3% −$559
economics 0% +$645
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -1.4% -10.7% 70% 47% +2.2%
≤30d 165 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 33% -10.7%
≤90d 714 +2.7% -7.0% 43% 37% -8.2%
all 714 +2.7% -7.0% 43% 37% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 37% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 34% -17.0%
15% -24.1% 30% -25.0%
20% -31.5% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$64 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,759
Realized−$1,085
Unrealized−$637
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses310 / 404
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions17
Markets (closed)714 / 731
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $500 $553 +$53 (+11%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 99¢ $364 $407 +$43 (+12%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $120 $194 +$74 (+62%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 26¢ 24¢ $159 $147 −$12 (-8%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 68¢ 68¢ $137 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 79¢ 43¢ $242 $132 −$110 (-45%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 72¢ 13¢ $442 $79 −$363 (-82%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $68 $34 −$34 (-50%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? No 45¢ 46¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $23 $6 −$16 (-73%)
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 31¢ 2¢ $83 $4 −$78 (-95%)
Will Graham Platner win between 65% and 70% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-94%)
Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $32 $1 −$31 (-98%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $705 +$311 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$23 +23%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 18 $31 +$3 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $120 +$11 +9%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 18 $327 +$24 +7%
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $164 −$164 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,203 +$188 +16%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $495 +$117 +24%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $103 +$28 +27%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $83 +$3 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $596 +$30 +5%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $270 −$33 -12%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 17 $39 +$11 +28%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$67 +55%
Will Trump say "Peace" during meeting with French President? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $384 +$81 +21%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $98 +$31 +32%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $260 +$22 +8%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $153 +$45 +30%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $56 +$95 +171%
Will Lamine Yamal be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $27 +$24 +90%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $153 +$16 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $100 −$4 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $810 +$201 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $99 +$12 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $195 +$22 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $495 +$30 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $240 +$16 +7%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $58 +$48 +82%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 13 $208 +$12 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $26 −$11 -42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $87 +$38 +44%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $145 +$47 +33%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $53 +$77 +146%
Will Graham Platner win between 80% and 85% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 11 $86 +$15 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $597 −$134 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $1,160 +$131 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $199 +$40 +20%
Will Claude Mythos not be released by June 30? Jun 09 $618 +$25 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $309 +$44 +14%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $112 +$16 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $194 +$15 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $14 0m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $4 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 1m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 5m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 68¢ $139 8m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 35¢ $140 13m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 30¢ $120 33m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 30¢ $9 34m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 24¢ $7 35m
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? BUY No 45¢ $12 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 40¢ $34 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $8 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $186 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $6 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $8 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $6 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $3 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 22¢ $200 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $131 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $113 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,758.96 · official $1,758.97 (match) · 3500 history records