Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe562…2494 crypto 127 markets active 4d ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized +$116 · open −$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate76%95W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$26
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$65
world 21% −$40
other 20% +$9
politics 1% +$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +21.2% +9.7% 100% 50% +3.2%
≤30d 8 -16.0% -24.0% 75% 25% -3.7%
≤90d 87 -1.2% -10.6% 75% 61% -8.9%
all 125 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 60% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 60% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 42% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 25% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$23 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses95 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage155d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 89¢ 86¢ $323 $310 −$13 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 1¢ $118 $1 −$117 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $27 +$10 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $78 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $299 +$11 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $143 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $363 +$43 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $347 +$28 +8%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $61 +$23 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 16 $309 +$15 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $130 +$20 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? May 15 $78 +$9 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $129 +$21 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 5? May 06 $16 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $51 +$17 +34%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? May 03 $99 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? May 03 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1? May 02 $65 +$10 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $44 +$28 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $32 +$6 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $22 +$10 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $141 −$115 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $161 −$20 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $148 +$36 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $32 +$19 +60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $42 +$14 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $65 +$10 +15%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 19 $20 +$2 +9%
BNB Up or Down - April 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 18 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 18 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 18 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 18 $7 +$3 +45%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 3PM ET Apr 17 $111 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $98 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8AM ET Apr 11 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6AM ET Apr 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4AM ET Apr 11 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 3PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11AM ET Apr 10 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8AM ET Apr 10 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$7 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $119 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $78 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 72¢ $27 5d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $326 6d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $430 6d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $310 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $299 13d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $105 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 94¢ $143 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $363 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? BUY No 92¢ $234 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? BUY No 92¢ $113 30d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 71¢ $61 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $309 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? BUY No 89¢ $78 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $129 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $130 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 5? BUY No 56¢ $16 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? SELL Up 95¢ $68 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? BUY Up 69¢ $51 42d
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $104 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? BUY Up 57¢ $15 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1? BUY No 86¢ $65 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? SELL Yes 81¢ $37 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 55¢ $25 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? SELL No 15¢ $22 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.16 · official $311.16 (match) · 296 history records