Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe560…6900 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+6%) realized +$43 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$61
world 35% −$9
sports 11% −$41
crypto 9% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 33% -3.0%
≤30d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 33% -3.0%
≤90d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 33% -3.0%
all 18 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 33% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 33% -3.0%
10% -24.7% 33% -12.3%
15% -31.9% 33% -20.8%
20% -38.6% 17% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 29¢ 17¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $114 −$19 -16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$19 -63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$22 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $80 −$5 -7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 +$25 +45%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$5 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +169%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 1h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $20 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $20 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $3 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $63 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 26h
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $5 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $75 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $80 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $7 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $51 47h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 47h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $14 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $63 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.52 · official $82.53 (match) · 55 history records