Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe559…c672 sports 535 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$154 (-6%) realized −$157 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%246W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$1
14 days+$16
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$137
other 21% −$47
world 0% +$3
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 51% -9.0%
≤30d 325 +7.9% -2.4% 48% 48% -9.3%
≤90d 530 -2.8% -12.1% 46% 46% -15.9%
all 530 -2.8% -12.1% 46% 46% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 46% -15.9%
10% -20.5% 46% -23.9%
15% -28.2% 45% -31.3%
20% -35.2% 40% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses246 / 284
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)530 / 535
History coverage69d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 49¢ 60¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Botic van de Zandschulp 62¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $2 +$2 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$3 +74%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +409%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Fritz Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $4 +$4 +93%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $3 −$2 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +59%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $4 +$5 +118%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 09 $3 +$3 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $4 +$3 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5 −$4 -96%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $5 +$3 +63%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $6 +$7 +121%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $3 +$4 +137%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $3 +$5 +158%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $3 +$7 +216%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $2 −$1 -98%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $5 +$4 +77%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Caltanissetta: Massimo Giunta vs Luca Potenza Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 62¢ $5 12m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $4 19m
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 39¢ $3 59m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 59¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 57¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $5 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $6 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $4 13h
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 14h
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 15h
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 65¢ $4 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 89¢ $5 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 17¢ $1 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 28¢ $0 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 39h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $5 39h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $6 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY 58¢ $5 43h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY 36¢ $4 43h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 58¢ $5 2d
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Fritz BUY Bublik 69¢ $5 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $4 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $6 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 50¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.45 · official $16.95 (match) · 861 history records