Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe554…3d62 crypto 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$339 (-25%) realized −$366 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%42W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$394
other 1% +$14
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -54.3% -58.7% 13% 13% -48.8%
≤30d 70 -54.3% -58.7% 13% 13% -48.8%
≤90d 78 -55.1% -59.3% 13% 13% -50.0%
all 288 -41.1% -46.7% 15% 15% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 15% -39.2%
10% -51.8% 14% -45.0%
15% -56.5% 14% -50.3%
20% -60.7% 13% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses42 / 246
Open positions1
Markets (closed)288 / 289
History coverage125d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 9¢ 38¢ $8 $35 +$27 (+334%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.76 · official $25.73 · 633 history records