Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe553…c927 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$986 (-54%) realized −$985 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$1,007
30 days−$1,007
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$758
crypto 34% −$76
sports 10% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -6.3% -15.2% 40% 38% -10.7%
≤30d 57 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 30% -61.5%
≤90d 57 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 30% -61.5%
all 57 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 30% -61.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 30% -61.5%
10% -39.1% 25% -65.2%
15% -45.0% 23% -68.6%
20% -50.4% 21% -71.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$34 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$985
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage8d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$22 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$11 +103%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$53 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$12 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$12 -94%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$99 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $806 −$800 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 9m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $24 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.25 · official $59.25 (match) · 116 history records