Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe551…f188 crypto 362 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$281 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$240
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%192W / 167L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$374
14 days−$374
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$288
other 9% +$177
sports 4% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -24.6% -31.8% 39% 33% -40.4%
≤30d 51 -24.6% -31.8% 39% 33% -40.4%
≤90d 51 -24.6% -31.8% 39% 33% -40.4%
all 359 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 33% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 33% -11.1%
10% -22.0% 26% -19.7%
15% -29.5% 19% -27.4%
20% -36.4% 14% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$1,223
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$240
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses192 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)359 / 362
History coverage181d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $871 $1,118 +$247 (+28%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $104 $101 −$3 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $151 +$41 +27%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $126 −$5 -4%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $28 +$28 +102%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $227 −$224 -99%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $70 −$43 -60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $49 +$21 +44%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $61 +$88 +146%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $13 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$8 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Antalya 3: Carole Monnet vs Dominika Salkova Jun 20 $81 −$60 -74%
Antalya 3: Polina Kudermetova vs Moyuka Uchijima Jun 20 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 79¢ $56 49m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 51m
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 70¢ $121 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 61¢ $113 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 64¢ $121 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 87¢ $122 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 67¢ $95 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $205 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $50 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $56 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $28 7h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $28 7h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $70 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 14h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $61 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $39 29h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $13 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $144 47h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $257 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,223.21 · official $1,226.37 (match) · 3080 history records