Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe550…4ebb sports 1941 markets active 0h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31,575 (-12%) realized −$31,686 · open +$111
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%548W / 1387L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4,007est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4,567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$32,549
other 8% −$1,793
world 0% +$523
crypto 0% −$50
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 96 -29.6% -36.3% 26% 26% -37.2%
≤90d 1281 -16.5% -24.5% 27% 27% -24.5%
all 1935 -11.7% -20.1% 28% 28% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 28% -21.7%
10% -27.8% 28% -29.2%
15% -34.8% 28% -36.0%
20% -41.2% 28% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$122 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$31,686
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses548 / 1387
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$4,007
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1935 / 1941
History coverage370d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1935 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 74¢ $92 $205 +$113 (+123%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $157 $156 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $62 −$61 -98%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $46 −$45 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $157 −$154 -98%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $70 +$87 +124%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $96 −$93 -98%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $89 −$87 -98%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $149 −$146 -98%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $50 +$145 +291%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 May 31 $30 +$34 +114%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 May 31 $52 +$87 +165%
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 May 31 $204 −$204 -100%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 3.5 May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 3.5 May 31 $32 +$74 +234%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5 May 31 $61 −$59 -98%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5 May 31 $94 −$92 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $91 −$91 -100%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 30 $94 −$94 -100%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $72 −$70 -98%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $117 −$117 -100%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5 May 30 $114 −$111 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 27 $93 −$93 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 May 26 $44 −$44 -98%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 May 26 $8 −$8 -98%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 26 $80 −$78 -98%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 3.5 May 26 $153 −$153 -100%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 3.5 May 25 $228 −$228 -100%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway May 25 $134 −$134 -100%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 3.5 May 25 $102 −$102 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 25 $379 −$372 -98%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 24 $50 +$114 +226%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $82 +$135 +165%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $102 −$102 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 24 $75 −$75 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Sporting CP vs. SC União Torreense: O/U 3.5 May 24 $153 −$150 -98%
AC Sparta Praha vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 4.5 May 24 $144 −$144 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 2.5 May 24 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 −$31 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $204 −$204 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 May 24 $198 −$198 -100%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $236 −$231 -98%
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $250 +$300 +120%
FK Jablonec vs. FC Slovan Liberec: O/U 2.5 May 24 $145 +$236 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 86¢ $281 16m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $161 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $204 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY 29¢ $17 7d
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $62 18d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $46 18d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $157 19d
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $70 19d
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $96 19d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $99 19d
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $89 19d
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $149 20d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $46 20d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $195 20d
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $93 20d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $50 20d
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 21d
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 21d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 21d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 21d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 21d
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $204 21d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $52 21d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 21d
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $106 21d
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $50 21d
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $32 21d
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 21d
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $61 21d
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.44 · official $360.44 (match) · 2592 history records