Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe550…532d world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$12
other 20% −$1
politics 16% $0
sports 8% −$11
economics 5% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 57% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 65 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.1%
all 66 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)66 / 71
History coverage485d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 +$2 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $77 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $158 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $78 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $17 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $39 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $33 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $21 +$1 +2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $6 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $20 $0 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $46 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $38 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $9 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $42 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $34 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $4 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $4 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.21 · official $45.66 · 289 history records