Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe550…5ac4 weather 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%149W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$57
other 3% −$1
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 41 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 143 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.2%
all 153 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×28.31 per $1 lost it wins $28.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses149 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage631d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $294 $294 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $268 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $468 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $502 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $203 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $203 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $301 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $503 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on May 30? May 31 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 38°C on May 30? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 39°C on May 30? May 31 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 40°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $389 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 28? May 28 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $461 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $76 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 24? May 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 24? May 24 $294 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 24? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 23? May 23 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on May 23? May 23 $336 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on May 19? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 19? May 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 19? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on May 19? May 22 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 19? May 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on May 19? May 22 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or below on May 17? May 17 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $294 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $233 41h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $268 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $233 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $468 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $502 8d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $39 10d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $101 10d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $101 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $60 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $101 10d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $101 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $152 13d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $146 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $134 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $69 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $103 14d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $95 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $99 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $99 14d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $301 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $200 17d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or below on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $50 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.09 · official $294.09 (match) · 348 history records