Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe54d…4b00 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.8% -15.6% 60% 40% -15.3%
≤30d 35 -6.8% -15.6% 60% 40% -15.3%
≤90d 35 -6.8% -15.6% 60% 40% -15.3%
all 35 -6.8% -15.6% 60% 40% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 40% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 29% -23.4%
15% -31.1% 14% -30.8%
20% -37.8% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$22 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $18 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $18 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $15 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $23 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $16 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records