Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe54b…df86 sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$184 (-6%) realized −$188 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%67W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$35
14 days−$53
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$107
other 22% −$290
politics 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +109.1% +89.2% 67% 67% +63.5%
≤30d 19 -14.7% -22.8% 32% 32% -39.0%
≤90d 19 -14.7% -22.8% 32% 32% -39.0%
all 108 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 44% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 44% -22.4%
10% -22.5% 38% -29.8%
15% -30.0% 31% -36.6%
20% -36.9% 24% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses67 / 56
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 110
History coverage462d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 41¢ 56¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will PSG Talon win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Invictus Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Team Secret Whales win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Movistar KOI win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Vivo Keyd Stars win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will 100 Thieves win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Fnatic win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$26 +624%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $16 +$6 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $8 +$7 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$9 -63%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $64 −$63 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $18 −$16 -90%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $16 −$1 -7%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $14 +$6 +44%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $50 +$10 +20%
Heat vs. Kings Jan 21 $3 +$2 +64%
Raptors vs. Warriors Jan 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Clippers vs. Bulls Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jan 20 $4 +$1 +12%
Pacers vs. 76ers Jan 20 $3 +$2 +49%
Suns vs. Nets Jan 20 $4 +$1 +30%
Clippers vs. Wizards Jan 20 $4 +$6 +133%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jan 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Jan 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Wizards vs. Nuggets Jan 19 $2 $0 +20%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jan 19 $3 +$2 +59%
Hornets vs. Warriors Jan 19 $4 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $3 17m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $9 18m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $26 26m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 15¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 13¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $16 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $8 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 48¢ $3 6d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $6 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 34¢ $5 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $9 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 44¢ $4 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $5 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 13d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 50¢ $10 13d
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) SELL GIANTX 7¢ $2 18d
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) BUY GIANTX 70¢ $18 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 62¢ $11 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Anyones Legend 31¢ $15 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 32¢ $16 18d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $14 19d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner BUY Shopify Rebellion 19¢ $4 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.81 · official $21.52 (match) · 364 history records