Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe548…a9fe sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58,910 (-16%) realized −$60,365 · open +$1,455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,741per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$3,365est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$30,438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,442
7 days−$20,227
14 days−$48,467
30 days−$67,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$23,374
other 19% −$34,068
crypto 5% −$8,275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -48.0% -52.9% 33% 33% -39.2%
≤30d 39 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 44% -28.2%
≤90d 39 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 44% -28.2%
all 39 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 44% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 44% -28.2%
10% -29.5% 41% -35.1%
15% ← realistic here -36.3% 33% -41.4%
20% -42.5% 26% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$11,660) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,990 vs −$6,909 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$30,438
Realized−$60,365
Unrealized+$1,455
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,365
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8,741
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 76¢ 68¢ $17,205 $15,436 −$1,769 (-10%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 69¢ 100¢ $10,311 $14,998 +$4,687 (+45%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 24¢ 0¢ $1,467 $3 −$1,464 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $19,980 +$6,500 +32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $4,590 −$4,489 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11,473 −$11,254 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,975 −$4,900 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5,600 +$4,400 +79%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,185 +$1,815 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,775 −$4,700 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,353 −$2,300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $24,439 +$5,561 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13,121 −$12,900 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $26,226 −$9,226 -35%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $20,065 −$10,610 -53%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $8,595 −$8,463 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,550 −$10,400 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,156 +$5,430 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,696 −$1,696 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,800 +$6,200 +163%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $12,681 +$4,313 +34%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8,695 +$3,551 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,375 +$4,625 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12,600 +$7,379 +59%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $7,536 −$7,503 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,273 +$5,727 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,383 +$7,117 +299%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,930 +$733 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $9,262 −$9,262 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $22,889 −$4,648 -20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $22,014 −$19,939 -91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $864 +$405 +47%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $15,724 +$18,879 +120%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,463 −$4,400 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $372 −$372 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11,750 −$11,660 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,451 +$1,654 +114%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10,167 −$3,167 -31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,794 +$532 +19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4,875 −$4,800 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $475 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $780 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $326 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $806 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $969 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $16 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $177 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $158 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $3,156 6m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $6,134 7m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $30 7m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $101 7m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $158 7m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $1,216 8m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $3 8m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $4 8m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $232 8m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $2,546 9m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $3,833 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $3,587 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $2,952 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $7 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $2 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $9 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $220 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $8 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $13 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $425 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,437.58 · official $30,437.58 (match) · 800 history records