Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe548…2ecf crypto 673 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (162 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,620 (-3%) realized −$2,620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate81%574W / 132L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day162.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days+$54
14 days−$2,291
30 days−$1,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$651
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (162 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 20% -9.1%
≤30d 706 -0.0% -9.5% 81% 29% -10.4%
≤90d 706 -0.0% -9.5% 81% 29% -10.4%
all 706 -0.0% -9.5% 81% 29% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 29% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 4% -19.0%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.8%
20% -33.3% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$74 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2,620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses574 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)706 / 673
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day162.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 706 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$9 -2096%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$19 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$5 -2121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$26 +506%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$22 +371%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$16 +562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$24 -329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$26 -134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$19 -454%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$9 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$11 -81%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$32 -160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$40 -2738%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$36 -132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $182 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $113 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $198 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $169 +$33 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $312 +$44 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $141 +$32 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $113 +$6 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $27 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $55 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $47 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $24 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records