Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe547…654c other 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,350 (+0%) realized +$1,351 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%33W / 163L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,522per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$31
14 days−$60
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$154
politics 32% −$124
sports 11% +$1,601
economics 3% −$8
culture 1% −$7
world 1% −$10
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 51 +0.9% -8.7% 10% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 112 +2.3% -7.4% 9% 6% -8.9%
all 196 +2.0% -7.7% 17% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 11% -9.1%
10% -16.6% 11% -17.8%
15% -24.6% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.0% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,959) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$9 · ×9.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized+$1,351
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses33 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)196 / 199
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,522
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $274 $274 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $185 $186 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $164 $163 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $5,072 −$6 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $317 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,994 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $7,844 −$8 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $2,936 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $3,494 −$5 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $270 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $288 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,929 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,712 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7,072 −$8 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $2,829 −$4 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,861 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,791 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $82 +$51 +62%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $82 +$80 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,851 −$4 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $4,011 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,575 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $431 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $604 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,263 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,316 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,551 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,953 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $2,162 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $5,696 −$6 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,959 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $274 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $283 18h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $284 20h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $251 20h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $252 22h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $316 23h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $317 25h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $337 42h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $337 44h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $164 44h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $347 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $347 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $351 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $352 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $411 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $411 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $349 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $350 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $355 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $356 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $241 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $241 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $287 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $288 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $245 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $245 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,348 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,349 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $622.79 · official $622.79 (match) · 735 history records