Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe545…e9be sports 578 markets active 0h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$186 (-0%) realized −$168 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate79%450W / 121L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$326
14 days−$345
30 days−$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$104
sports 6% −$401
tech 4% +$8
weather 4% +$8
crypto 3% +$39
culture 2% +$5
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$25
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 35% -18.2%
≤30d 133 -14.8% -23.0% 48% 32% -15.1%
≤90d 252 -6.0% -14.9% 72% 20% -10.6%
all 571 -2.4% -11.7% 79% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 9% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses450 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions7
Markets (closed)571 / 578
History coverage187d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 87¢ 90¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 66¢ 64¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Zizou Bergs 58¢ 57¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 41¢ 24¢ $49 $29 −$20 (-40%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Xinyu Wang 25¢ 26¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Natus Vincere 62¢ 63¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Execration 73¢ 73¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $49 +$18 +37%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 21 $49 +$18 +37%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $49 +$13 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $198 +$137 +69%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $49 −$2 -4%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $40 −$36 -91%
Will Tom Aspinall be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Po Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2 Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 18 $7 $0 +3%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $7 $0 +7%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $44 −$6 -14%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $24 −$7 -29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$25 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$29 +146%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 −$1 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 +$45 +129%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$46 +115%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $22 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $28 3m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 73¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $50 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 58¢ $49 3h
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $8 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Zeynep Sonmez 72¢ $49 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 78¢ $49 6h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 72¢ $49 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 25¢ $16 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 25¢ $11 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $50 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $48 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $47 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $49 22h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 88¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 41¢ $45 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 58¢ $47 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $47 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $48 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $49 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $49 23h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 54¢ $25 25h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 54¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $49 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $48 26h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.45 · official $219.45 (match) · 1856 history records