Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe544…c7af sports 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$51 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%46W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days−$17
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$134
crypto 11% +$51
other 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.2% +0.6% 67% 33% -3.7%
≤30d 75 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 39% -13.4%
≤90d 75 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 39% -13.4%
all 75 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 39% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 39% -13.4%
10% -23.5% 28% -21.7%
15% -30.9% 21% -29.3%
20% -37.7% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses46 / 29
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage26d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Emilien Demanet 38¢ 36¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 38¢ 30¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $16 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $67 +$6 +9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $36 +$4 +11%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 +$11 +60%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 −$8 -15%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Oasis Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $16 +$1 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $15 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $34 +$2 +6%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Kacper Knitter vs Adam Majchrzak Jun 05 $8 +$5 +60%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $9 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $28 −$28 -100%
Centurion 2: Sasikumar Mukund vs Giles Hussey Jun 02 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$2 +44%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Martin Krumich Jun 02 $10 −$6 -58%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $8 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $8 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $25 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $21 +$22 +106%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $137 −$80 -59%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $124 +$66 +53%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advan Jun 01 $67 −$20 -30%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $82 −$20 -24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $242 +$49 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $16 +$23 +148%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $29 −$4 -14%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 01 $29 −$3 -11%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $13 +$3 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $10 +$3 +27%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 31 $11 +$1 +9%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 31 $30 +$4 +14%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports (BO5) - China Evolution Series A May 31 $48 +$5 +10%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner May 31 $16 +$2 +14%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch May 31 $2 +$1 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $5 −$2 -46%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $12 −$9 -76%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $25 −$16 -65%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 4 Winner May 31 $59 −$3 -5%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 3 Winner May 31 $79 +$1 +2%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup May 31 $23 +$4 +18%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner May 31 $18 +$7 +40%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu May 31 $9 +$6 +66%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO5) - Odyssey Cup Brazil May 31 $7 −$6 -78%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 4 Winner May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 31 $14 +$1 +6%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $17 +$10 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $8 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Emilien Demanet 38¢ $15 6m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 48¢ $15 6m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 49¢ $16 20m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 38¢ $15 21m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 30¢ $30 24m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 69¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 69¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 65¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 65¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 65¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 65¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 63¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 61¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 61¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 61¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 61¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 34¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 34¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 34¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 37¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 37¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 37¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 37¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 36¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.37 · official $24.00 · 349 history records