Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe540…0459 sports 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-4%) realized −$200 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate73%188W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$10
14 days−$19
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$177
other 32% +$3
politics 8% −$4
world 4% $0
crypto 3% −$69
culture 1% +$6
finance 1% +$3
tech 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -3.5% -12.7% 74% 21% -9.9%
≤30d 257 -4.0% -13.1% 73% 17% -13.5%
≤90d 257 -4.0% -13.1% 73% 17% -13.5%
all 257 -4.0% -13.1% 73% 17% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 17% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 0% -21.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -29.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses188 / 69
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)257 / 260
History coverage18d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 95¢ 93¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? No 94¢ 93¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $22 +$1 +4%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$11 -51%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $28 −$1 -5%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $19 $0 -1%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $22 $0 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 −$2 -6%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 $0 -2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $27 +$3 +12%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $36 +$4 +12%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $19 +$3 +14%
Will MrBeast attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $28 +$3 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $27 +$5 +17%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $22 +$2 +9%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $23 +$1 +3%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $27 +$3 +11%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $21 +$2 +9%
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 +$2 +7%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +5%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $12 +$1 +12%
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $33 +$3 +10%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $29 +$3 +9%
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? SELL No $0 8m
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $5 19m
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $5 20m
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 82¢ $7 50m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 85¢ $6 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? SELL No 99¢ $12 23h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY No 72¢ $11 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY No 90¢ $11 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? SELL No 89¢ $11 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY No 90¢ $11 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $7 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $7 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 93¢ $15 24h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 76¢ $20 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $7 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $8 24h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 78¢ $19 24h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Minnesota Lynx 89¢ $19 24h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 85¢ $7 24h
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $22 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 82¢ $24 24h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $26 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $27 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.10 · official $34.10 (match) · 725 history records