Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe53f…62d7 sports 915 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 229d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,474 (-3%) realized −$9,699 · open +$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%368W / 546L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$1,708est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$967
7 days+$1,698
14 days+$1,014
30 days−$1,878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$4,248
other 4% −$569
politics 1% −$946
crypto 0% −$468
culture 0% −$265
world 0% −$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +29.8% +17.5% 43% 43% +14.8%
≤30d 184 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 37% -13.8%
≤90d 370 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 36% -13.4%
all 914 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 39% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% -11.5%
10% -21.8% 37% -20.0%
15% -29.3% 34% -27.7%
20% -36.3% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$215 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$9,699
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses368 / 546
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,708
Open positions1
Markets (closed)914 / 915
History coverage230d ⚠
Avg bet$326
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 914 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 38¢ 86¢ $180 $405 +$225 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $261 −$184 -71%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $1,204 +$570 +47%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $119 +$99 +82%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 27 $235 −$230 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $57 −$4 -7%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 27 $158 −$155 -98%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $81 −$9 -11%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Jun 27 $342 +$287 +84%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $124 −$121 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $30 +$190 +639%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $303 +$230 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$27 -66%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $422 +$167 +40%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $24 −$24 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $161 +$198 +124%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $132 +$229 +174%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $72 −$70 -98%
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 26 $124 +$130 +105%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $124 −$121 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $176 +$210 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $151 −$148 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $90 +$319 +353%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 25 $368 −$361 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $150 −$9 -6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$23 -67%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $69 −$35 -50%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $228 +$90 +40%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $172 −$168 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $103 +$359 +347%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $26 −$26 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $68 +$242 +358%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $84 +$127 +152%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $180 +$246 +136%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $141 −$139 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $236 −$69 -29%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $69 −$68 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $15 +$19 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $77 +$139 +180%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $36 +$41 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $65 −$64 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $204 −$201 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $471 −$246 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 25¢ $51 11m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $132 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 51¢ $215 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL New York Yankees 12¢ $77 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 30¢ $20 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 32¢ $22 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 36¢ $25 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 36¢ $131 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $60 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $10 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $27 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $163 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $360 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 30¢ $82 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 28¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 27¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 23¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 43¢ $94 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 55¢ $110 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 34¢ $76 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 62¢ $226 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 37¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 37¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 37¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 38¢ $173 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 62¢ $421 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $29 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 58¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 58¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.92 · official $242.48 · 3500 history records