Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe53e…22e0 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$195 (+1%) realized +$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 55L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 55% −$14
politics 21% −$13
other 14% +$9
sports 3% +$209
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 +13.0% +2.2% 24% 17% -7.3%
all 71 +10.5% -0.1% 23% 14% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 14% -8.8%
10% -9.6% 14% -17.6%
15% -18.4% 13% -25.5%
20% -26.4% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×12.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage598d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $324 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $53 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $310 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $260 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $270 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $261 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 06 $272 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $281 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $294 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 25 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $274 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $272 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $291 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $279 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $286 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $292 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $291 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$14 +172%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $14 +$7 +46%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $10 +$15 +146%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $12 +$6 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $12 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 22h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 24h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 42h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 45h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $181 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 12d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 17d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 18d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 18d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 19d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 19d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $75 22d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $48 24d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $48 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.67 · official $192.67 (match) · 290 history records