Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe53d…f895 crypto 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,222 (+3%) realized +$1,222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%425W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$341
14 days−$518
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -2.4% -11.7% 95% 0% -17.1%
≤30d 246 -1.9% -11.2% 95% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 454 -1.6% -11.0% 94% 4% -10.3%
all 454 -1.6% -11.0% 94% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 4% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$48 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses425 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)454 / 454
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$85
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 454 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $191 −$189 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $154 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $117 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $87 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $192 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $121 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records