Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe53d…1b96 crypto 723 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,517 (-1%) realized −$1,492 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%681W / 40L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$23
14 days+$47
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$846
crypto 46% −$693
other 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 44 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 211 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 1% -11.7%
all 721 -1.9% -11.3% 94% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -10.3%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.9%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$132 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$1,344
Realized−$1,492
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses681 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)721 / 723
History coverage239d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $678 $676 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 95¢ $691 $667 −$23 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $677 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $683 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $675 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $678 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $605 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $177 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $672 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $674 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $669 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $146 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $662 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 6? Jun 06 $457 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 6? Jun 06 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5? Jun 05 $661 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $663 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 3? Jun 03 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 3? Jun 03 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 3? Jun 03 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 2? Jun 02 $660 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 1? Jun 01 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1? Jun 01 $317 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 31? May 31 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 30? May 30 $339 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29? May 29 $341 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 28? May 28 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 28? May 28 $325 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27? May 26 $253 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 27? May 26 $323 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 27? May 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 27? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on May 26? May 25 $676 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 25? May 24 $160 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 25? May 24 $515 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $370 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 24? May 23 $303 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 23? May 22 $504 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on May 23? May 22 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 22? May 21 $668 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 19? May 21 $429 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 19? May 21 $149 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 19? May 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17? May 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 17? May 17 $415 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on May 16? May 15 $666 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on May 15? May 14 $664 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 14? May 14 $294 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $679 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $387 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $300 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $677 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $683 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $675 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $678 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $68 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $605 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $177 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $498 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $672 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $674 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $217 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $452 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $146 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $90 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $436 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $662 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $51 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $99 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $104 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $401 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $661 13d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $663 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $225 15d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $287 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,343.57 · official $1,343.57 (match) · 2065 history records