Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E5 0xe538…c28b crypto 847 markets active 0h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,533 (+5%) realized +$6,397 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%346W / 465L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$417est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$825
7 days+$2,021
14 days+$2,530
30 days+$2,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$143
sports 25% +$4,129
other 5% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -7.8% -16.5% 37% 27% +14.4%
≤30d 98 -31.7% -38.2% 31% 24% +6.3%
≤90d 699 -8.9% -17.6% 39% 33% -3.2%
all 811 -8.9% -17.5% 43% 33% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 33% -6.4%
10% -25.4% 28% -15.3%
15% -32.6% 23% -23.5%
20% -39.2% 19% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$45 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$1,086
Realized+$6,397
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses346 / 465
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$417
Open positions6
Markets (closed)811 / 847
History coverage220d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $500 $646 +$146 (+29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$17 -36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $643 −$154 -24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,107 −$286 -14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $26 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$8 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 −$8 -33%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $504 +$137 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$38 +368%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $503 +$7 +1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $506 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $661 −$506 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$6 -6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$157 +155%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $607 +$352 +58%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$86 -84%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $202 +$112 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$32 -31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $506 −$506 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,124 +$3,394 +302%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $228 −$28 -12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $504 +$144 +29%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$13 -13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $508 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $51 +$26 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $510 +$755 +148%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $224 −$224 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $51 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $32 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $688 +$277 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $103 +$66 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$314 +307%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $18 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 23m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $27 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $68 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $70 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 58¢ $118 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 75¢ $191 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $247 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $24 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 34¢ $1,533 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $510 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 4¢ $20 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,086.03 · official $1,086.48 (match) · 3054 history records