Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe538…2fda crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (556 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day556.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (556 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -9.9% -18.4% 48% 29% -7.2%
≤30d 31 -9.9% -18.4% 48% 29% -7.2%
≤90d 31 -9.9% -18.4% 48% 29% -7.2%
all 31 -9.9% -18.4% 48% 29% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover556.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 29% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 26% -16.1%
15% -33.4% 19% -24.2%
20% -39.9% 13% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day556.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 55¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 0¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 51¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.96 · official $14.39 · 574 history records