Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe535…c61d crypto 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+5%) realized +$4 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$95
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$94
crypto 24% −$22
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +80.4% +63.2% 100% 100% +58.0%
≤30d 5 +44.3% +30.5% 80% 80% +41.4%
≤90d 36 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 47% +13.9%
all 36 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 47% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 47% +13.9%
10% -29.2% 44% +3.0%
15% -36.0% 36% -6.9%
20% -42.3% 19% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage53d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $109 $122 +$13 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $64 +$43 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$9 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 28 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 28 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 28 $2 +$4 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 28 $7 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $109 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $64 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $23 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 7d
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 52d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 52d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $9 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $7 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.19 · official $122.19 (match) · 85 history records