Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E5 0xe534…53d0 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$112 (-30%) realized −$86 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate33%4W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$17

7 days+$24

14 days+$24

30 days+$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-13.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+94.1%	+75.6%	60%	60%	+76.3%
≤30d	5	+94.1%	+75.6%	60%	60%	+76.3%
≤90d	5	+94.1%	+75.6%	60%	60%	+76.3%
all	12	-3.9%	-13.0%	33%	25%	-33.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.0%	25%	-33.6%
10%	-21.4%	25%	-40.0%
15%	-29.0%	25%	-45.8%
20%	-35.9%	25%	-51.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +95% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -70% → late +62% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.58 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage

Net worth$157

Realized−$86

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses4 / 8

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions8

Markets (closed)12 / 27

History coverage290d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$80	$67	−$13 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$28	$27	−$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	3¢	$10	$25	+$15 (+146%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$15	$12	−$3 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$20	$11	−$9 (-46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-13%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Yes	18¢	6¢	$11	$3	−$7 (-69%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	39¢	12¢	$10	$3	−$7 (-68%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Team	Jun 25	$5	+$17	+329%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Bot	Jun 24	$5	+$7	+143%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams	Jun 24	$5	+$10	+188%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$9	−$8	-90%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Oct 29	$11	−$11	-100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Oct 29	$15	−$3	-18%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?	Oct 01	$5	$0	+1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Sep 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?	Sep 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2025-09-09?	Sep 09	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conferenc	Sep 09	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$28	1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U	BUY	27¢	$5	2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND South Africa	BUY	27¢	$5	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams t	BUY	32¢	$5	2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Team	BUY	23¢	$5	2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 AND Bosnia an	BUY	37¢	$5	2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada	BUY	19¢	$5	2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams	SELL	99¢	$15	2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Bot	BUY	40¢	$5	3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams	BUY	33¢	$5	3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: England	BUY	20¢	$5	3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. Uzbekist	BUY	34¢	$5	3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$31	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$1	4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$9	17d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$15	17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$62	17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$82	17d
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	BUY Yes	18¢	$11	38d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	38d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	1¢	$6	239d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	239d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	SELL No	47¢	$12	239d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	BUY No	55¢	$5	268d
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?	BUY No	99¢	$5	269d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	281d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.11 · official $157.11 (match) · 56 history records