Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe533…ab29 world 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$55,802 (-13%) realized −$65,540 · open +$9,738
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%135W / 65L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,796per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$430est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$62,594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 128d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$8,271
other 21% −$955
finance 12% +$8,684
sports 8% −$7,684
weather 4% −$3,848
politics 4% +$13,095
economics 4% −$5,772
crypto 2% −$434
tech 2% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +38.5% +25.3% 50% 46% +2.4%
≤30d 83 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 42% -12.6%
≤90d 147 +0.5% -9.1% 65% 44% -9.2%
all 200 +9.0% -1.4% 68% 41% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 41% -9.2%
10% -10.8% 32% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -19.4% 22% -25.8%
20% -27.3% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,938) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$600 vs −$1,224 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$62,594
Realized−$65,540
Unrealized+$9,738
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses135 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$430
Open positions33
Markets (closed)200 / 233
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$1,796
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 4¢ 98¢ $553 $12,778 +$12,224 (+2209%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 93¢ $8,467 $8,338 −$128 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $4,320 $4,087 −$232 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $3,156 $3,491 +$335 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 82¢ 100¢ $2,460 $2,995 +$536 (+22%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 100¢ $1,969 $2,247 +$278 (+14%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 73¢ 90¢ $1,835 $2,237 +$403 (+22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,977 $2,032 +$55 (+3%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No 68¢ 66¢ $2,050 $1,980 −$70 (-3%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 96¢ $1,370 $1,910 +$540 (+39%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1,890 $1,872 −$17 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1,140 $1,725 +$585 (+51%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,895 $1,690 −$205 (-11%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $1,590 $1,650 +$60 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $825 $1,599 +$774 (+94%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 78¢ 100¢ $1,170 $1,496 +$326 (+28%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 80¢ 100¢ $1,200 $1,495 +$295 (+25%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 51¢ 54¢ $1,030 $1,070 +$40 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $990 $1,050 +$60 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 85¢ 100¢ $850 $999 +$149 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $930 $997 +$67 (+7%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $920 $930 +$10 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 66¢ 48¢ $990 $712 −$277 (-28%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 60¢ 32¢ $1,195 $650 −$545 (-46%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Over 37¢ 31¢ $740 $614 −$126 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $850 −$850 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,360 −$1,360 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 26 $2,335 −$2,335 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $977 +$3,523 +361%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 25 $473 −$473 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $398 +$140 +35%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,360 +$2,640 +194%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $590 +$410 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $965 +$35 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 23 $400 +$600 +150%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,270 −$1,270 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,890 −$1,890 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3,735 +$765 +20%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $590 +$6,210 +1052%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,340 +$660 +49%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $450 +$550 +122%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,420 +$1,580 +111%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $600 +$400 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,095 −$1,095 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $720 +$480 +67%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $700 +$1,938 +277%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5,801 +$359 +6%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 18 $660 +$340 +52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $920 +$1,080 +117%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $990 −$990 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9,862 −$8,931 -91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3,215 −$2,015 -63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,650 +$350 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,680 −$737 -44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $196 +$54 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $1,140 +$360 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $6,395 +$3,185 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $874 +$2,126 +243%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $772 +$783 +101%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $6,198 +$423 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,580 +$1,420 +90%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $1,866 +$134 +7%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 12 $825 +$219 +27%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $371 +$129 +35%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $760 +$240 +32%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $3,391 +$109 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $323 16m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 18m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 18m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $114 19m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 20m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 20m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $126 22m
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 48¢ $480 22m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $90 23m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $120 23m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $90 23m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $84 23m
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $90 23m
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 55¢ $45 23m
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 55¢ $505 27m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $242 30m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $456 30m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 30m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $23 31m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $32 31m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $176 31m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 31m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $289 33m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $242 35m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $18 35m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $278 46m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 46m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $133 49m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $172 49m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62,594.22 · official $62,602.25 (match) · 3500 history records