Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe532…f54a other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$202 (+40%) realized +$224 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR85%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$166
sports 8% −$6
crypto 5% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +85%
net ROI/market (all)+31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +45.2% +31.4% 85% 85% +37.5%
≤30d 13 +45.2% +31.4% 85% 85% +37.5%
≤90d 13 +45.2% +31.4% 85% 85% +37.5%
all 13 +45.2% +31.4% 85% 85% +37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.4% 85% +37.5%
10% +18.8% 85% +24.3%
15% +7.3% 77% +12.3%
20% -3.2% 62% +1.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.67 per $1 lost it wins $6.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$224
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 +$23 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 +$16 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$35 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$16 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 59¢ $30 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $46 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $45 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.65 · official $102.94 · 29 history records