Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe532…8aee crypto 387 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$628 (+8%) realized +$617 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%188W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$370
14 days+$414
30 days+$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$48
other 27% +$391
world 2% +$38
sports 2% +$67
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -50.1% -54.9% 31% 31% +14.5%
≤30d 19 -25.6% -32.7% 42% 42% +18.2%
≤90d 383 -0.9% -10.4% 49% 40% -4.8%
all 383 -0.9% -10.4% 49% 40% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 40% -4.8%
10% -18.9% 30% -13.9%
15% -26.8% 22% -22.2%
20% -33.9% 16% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$617
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses188 / 195
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)383 / 387
History coverage67d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,005 +$398 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 01 $20 +$13 +65%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $20 +$42 +206%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Pumas UNAM win Liga MX? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-09? May 19 $10 +$5 +52%
CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5 May 19 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-14? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 07 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $10 +$8 +76%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $10 +$8 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Jiujiang: Ognjen Milic vs Fajing Sun Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 10h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 8d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 31d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 31d
Will Pumas UNAM win Liga MX? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 31d
CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $10 38d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 38d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 38d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.72 · official $420.74 (match) · 1196 history records