Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe532…a08b crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$843per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$19
crypto 2% −$27
other 0% −$15
sports 0% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +47.8% +33.7% 27% 20% -9.1%
≤30d 16 +44.8% +31.0% 25% 19% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +44.8% +31.0% 25% 19% -9.2%
all 16 +44.8% +31.0% 25% 19% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 19% -9.2%
10% +18.5% 12% -17.9%
15% +7.0% 12% -25.8%
20% -3.5% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +125% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$8 · ×4.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage21d
Avg bet$843
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $10,408 −$15 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,962 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$112 +1119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -96%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $782 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $186 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $186 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $186 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $187 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.50 · official $121.50 (match) · 165 history records