Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe531…b69d world 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$4
crypto 13% +$2
politics 10% −$3
other 4% −$11
tech 4% +$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 9% -8.3%
all 32 -8.8% -17.4% 47% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 6% -10.8%
10% -25.3% 0% -19.4%
15% -32.6% 0% -27.2%
20% -39.2% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage479d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $74 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $37 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $34 +$5 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 10 $2 $0 -14%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 08 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $17 $0 +3%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $1 $0 +14%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 24 $4 −$3 -81%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $4 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 22? Mar 23 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Trump Media invest in Ethereum before March? Mar 20 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $43 27m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $43 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $25 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $39 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $27 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 29d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 29d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 29d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 29d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $39 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $29 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $5 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $6 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records