Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe530…a2ca sports 1601 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$597 (-0%) realized −$584 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%723W / 862L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$616est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8,218
14 days−$8,815
30 days−$9,684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2,123
weather 17% −$589
other 4% +$940
politics 2% −$2,678
tech 0% +$60
world 0% −$2
culture 0% −$260
economics 0% −$15
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -65.8% -69.1% 15% 15% -80.6%
≤30d 157 -19.2% -26.9% 34% 32% -49.7%
≤90d 569 -17.2% -25.1% 36% 35% -33.2%
all 1585 +1.7% -8.0% 46% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 44% -9.8%
10% -16.8% 43% -18.4%
15% -24.8% 42% -26.3%
20% -32.2% 41% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$77 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$561
Realized−$584
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses723 / 862
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$616
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1585 / 1601
History coverage276d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $150 $183 +$33 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $150 $101 −$49 (-33%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 45¢ 46¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 45¢ 46¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ 44¢ $76 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? No $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 20 $98 −$2 -2%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $76 +$84 +109%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $61 +$69 +114%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $73 +$87 +119%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$102 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $70 +$80 +113%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $73 +$87 +119%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $75 +$105 +140%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $76 +$84 +109%
Kraken vs. Flames Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $141 −$141 -100%
Penguins vs. Senators Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Canucks vs. Senators Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Lightning vs. Devils Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Blues vs. Utah Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Predators vs. Oilers Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Ducks vs. Flyers Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Devils Jun 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Avalanche vs. Lightning Jun 13 $260 −$128 -49%
Predators vs. Oilers Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Utah vs. Flyers Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Wild vs. Kraken Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Stars vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Utah vs. Flames Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Kraken vs. Utah Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Canadiens Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Senators vs. Kraken Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Red Wings vs. Kraken Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Bruins vs. Red Wings Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Lightning vs. Sharks Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Red Wings vs. Blackhawks Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $151 −$151 -100%
Islanders vs. Panthers Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Panthers Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Red Wings vs. Oilers Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Capitals vs. Flyers Jun 13 $162 −$162 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $163 −$163 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ $76 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 45¢ $82 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 45¢ $82 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $6 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $90 14h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $80 23h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $75 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $0 30h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $76 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $10 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $51 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $61 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $73 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $24 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $44 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $1 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $4 4d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 44¢ $75 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $10 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $10 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $1 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $3 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $70 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $89 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 45¢ $73 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $75 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $76 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $63 7d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $85 7d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $67 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.63 · official $560.77 (match) · 3360 history records