Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E5 0xe52f…bbca crypto 315 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3190 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24,463 (+169%) realized +$24,473 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%155W / 150L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3190.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,803
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3190 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 +19.0% +7.6% 51% 39% +15.1%
≤30d 305 +19.0% +7.6% 51% 39% +15.1%
≤90d 305 +19.0% +7.6% 51% 39% +15.1%
all 305 +19.0% +7.6% 51% 39% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3190.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 39% +15.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.7% 33% +4.1%
15% -12.1% 28% -6.0%
20% -20.7% 21% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$18 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$24,473
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses155 / 150
Open positions10
Markets (closed)305 / 315
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3190.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 65¢ 98¢ $81 $121 +$40 (+49%)
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 94¢ 99¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 95¢ 98¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 27¢ 52¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+88%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 45¢ 48¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 46¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 11¢ 2¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-76%)
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 44¢ 1¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 75¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $71 −$1 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $82 −$38 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$114 +393%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$6 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$17 +567%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $54 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$11 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $92 +$71 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$36 +393%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$42 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $65 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$11 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$32 +146%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$34 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $81 +$21 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $84 −$15 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$15 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$177 +536%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$50 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$34 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$29 +201%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$21 +69%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$9 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$27 +1852%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $128 −$29 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$46 +162%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$18 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$9 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $37 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $18 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.97 · official $271.68 (match) · 3500 history records