Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe529…3e53 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$17
politics 42% −$19
sports 4% +$71
economics 3% −$2
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 +6.6% -3.5% 7% 5% -9.4%
all 127 +7.3% -2.9% 11% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 8% -9.4%
10% -12.2% 8% -18.1%
15% -20.7% 6% -26.0%
20% -28.4% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×9.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage115d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $273 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $636 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $244 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $276 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $228 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $307 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $242 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $285 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $269 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $278 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $219 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $231 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $318 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $236 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $275 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $318 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $271 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $263 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $300 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $329 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $220 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $284 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $237 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 5h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 43h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $50 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 11d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 11d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 13d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $47 13d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $47 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 20d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $244 20d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $244 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $279 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 361 history records