Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe524…4760 sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$350 (-9%) realized −$365 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%43W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$340
7 days−$278
14 days−$155
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$19
other 26% −$70
crypto 8% −$93
world 7% −$96
finance 2% −$66
politics 1% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +10.5% -0.1% 28% 28% -30.8%
≤30d 99 +10.6% +0.1% 31% 29% -18.4%
≤90d 161 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 25% -19.6%
all 161 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 25% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 25% -19.6%
10% -19.1% 23% -27.3%
15% -26.9% 22% -34.3%
20% -34.1% 21% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$14 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$365
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses43 / 118
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions17
Markets (closed)161 / 181
History coverage42d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+69%)
Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+23%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Haiti? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $27 +$68 +248%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +180%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 19 $106 −$88 -84%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$67 +649%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $28 −$1 -5%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $12 +$11 +87%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 +$30 +73%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 +$89 +1726%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +250%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$30 +596%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -44%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $6 +$8 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 51m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 51m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 19h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 19h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.54 · official $128.00 · 383 history records