Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E5 0xe523…f087 sports 318 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,139 (+31%) realized +$6,268 · open +$871
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%138W / 162L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$206est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$510
14 days−$1,048
30 days−$1,085
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$7,039
other 20% +$78
tech 1% −$136
world 0% −$33
economics 0% −$22
politics 0% −$13
culture 0% −$7
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.6% +3.7% 42% 42% -19.9%
≤30d 41 +9.1% -1.3% 37% 37% -24.3%
≤90d 87 +13.5% +2.7% 46% 44% +15.3%
all 300 +21.1% +9.5% 46% 44% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 44% +17.5%
10% -0.9% 42% +6.2%
15% -10.5% 39% -4.0%
20% -19.3% 34% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +35% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$43 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$3,660
Realized+$6,268
Unrealized+$871
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses138 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions18
Markets (closed)300 / 318
History coverage465d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 53¢ $1,076 $1,699 +$622 (+58%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $480 $679 +$199 (+41%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $559 $620 +$61 (+11%)
Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $112 $124 +$12 (+11%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) Otari Tanzilovi 36¢ 35¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO? Yes 22¢ 35¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+59%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Jean Silva be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 19 $51 −$2 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 19 $202 −$8 -4%
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? Jun 19 $156 −$89 -57%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$60 +291%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $404 −$404 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$70 +344%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $61 +$132 +216%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $947 −$947 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $303 −$303 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $304 +$481 +158%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $14 +$7 +49%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $139 +$95 +68%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $406 +$335 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $543 +$326 +60%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 +$71 +70%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $151 +$43 +29%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $124 +$76 +61%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$2 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $153 −$13 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $40 −$6 -16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jun 07 $209 +$110 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $86 −$86 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $640 −$640 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $186 +$151 +81%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $30 +$85 +285%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C May 30 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 26 $620 −$89 -14%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 26 $31 −$31 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $63 +$37 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $253 +$203 +80%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $289 −$33 -11%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $102 −$17 -16%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $143 −$85 -59%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,233 +$4,354 +353%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $323 +$229 +71%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $91 +$89 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 48¢ $49 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 58¢ $194 11h
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $50 11h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $111 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 22h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 22h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 22h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 28¢ $20 22h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 48¢ $51 22h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 36¢ $51 22h
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 26h
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $202 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 29¢ $51 4d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 31¢ $61 4d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $203 4d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,659.53 · official $3,659.53 (match) · 1353 history records